In 2015, construction added 11% growth to reach nearly $1.1 billion in construction put in place since 2008. Signs that the rate of growth for the industry is slowing reduced the forecast for 2016; however, construction put in place will reach $1.6 billion.
The increase in construction activity has also spurred growth in construction employment. The U.S. construction industry added 37,000 net new jobs in March 2016 according to an analysis of the recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release by Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC). On a year-over-year basis, construction employment expanded by 301,000 net new jobs, the industry’s largest annual increase since May 2015.
“Naturally, consumer spending-led recoveries such as this more directly impact residential construction segments than nonresidential," said ABC’s Chief Economist Anirban Basu. "Accordingly, the residential construction recovery continues to be a bit more forceful and that is likely to continue during the months ahead.”
Improving consumer economic and physical health and a growing population demanding new technologies and housing are contributing to the forecast of projected growth.. Those consumers, especially younger consumers are also highly mobile and gravitating most often toward larger cities for jobs and entertainment. With all the good news for construction markets, FMI notes that it must also echo the sentiments of the Federal Reserve and say: "Global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks,"
FMI recommends cautious optimism for 2016 and offers these forecasts for some key sectors:
- Manufacturing – Manufacturing construction took a heavy hit during the Great Recession, but it has more than caught up as of 2015, with a whopping growth of 44% for the year and a more modest 9% growth expected for 2016. In either case, new records are being set for manufacturing construction investment. While, at 76.1 for February 2016, manufacturing capacity utilization is still below the long-term average of 78.5, there are signs that new capacity is being well utilized.
- Residential Construction – FMI forecast residential construction will grow at a rate of 6% for 2016, with the largest rate of growth in multifamily housing (12%). Compared to 2015, growth will be cut by more than half. There are signs that some of the slower growth is due to homebuilders—like most all contractors—having difficulties fnding qualifed labor, thus needing to increase wages to attract more workers.
- Lodging – Lodging construction continued to rise above even increasingly optimistic forecasts for 2015 to end the year with 31% growth. At this point, FMI again expects the rate of growth to cool, but, at 15% for 2016, it will still be the fastest-growing construction market. With an expected value of $24.3 billion for 2016, this market is well below its high of $35.8 billion in 2008, but we expect these numbers to be more sustainable with a mix of new venues and refurbishing established locations.
Office – After a strong show of growth in 2015 (22%), we expect office construction to cool in 2016 to a still respectable rate of 9% growth. Much of the growth has come from an increase in employment, especially in high-tech job markets. These high growth rates will taper off to more sustainable rates in 2017 and beyond. Continued growth in the technical sector and in larger metropolitan areas like New York City will keep rents and absorption of new space high.
Power – After a strong year in 2014, power construction declined sharply in 2015, losing 14%. FMI expects another 4% drop in 2016, thus giving up the gains realized since 2012. The power industry is in flux due to changing fuel supplies using more natural gas and less coal as well as variable rates of growth in alternative energy sources like solar and wind. Power plants must be updated to keep up with changing requirements as well as to manage distributed generation sources. Despite losing subsidies and the lower cost of oil and gas, wind and solar power generation facilities are growing. The power industry will continue to consolidate as the average consumer reduces power use, but growth will slow in 2016 and 2017.
